Everything in the world is about play except play. Play is about power.
We tried actually going to Qatar, but we got turned away at customs. We’re straight — and we were still too gay.
But we agree with Pep, anyway: “The best way to enjoy the World Cup,” the bald fraud recently propounded, “is at home with red wine.” And since there’s nothing to do but wait with bated breath for a week while we weigh the pros and cons of boycotting, here’s a preview of the upcoming Copa Mundial, the single greatest sporting competition in the history of the world.
FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022
32 teams from 6 continents are headed to Qatar right about now. It could’ve been the US of A hosting, but we’ll get our chance in four years. Sepp Blatter — former FIFA president and the Richard Nixon of the beautiful game — admitted as much recently: “The 2022 World Cup was supposed to go to the US. A week before the FIFA convention, Platini [one of the king’s men] told me that he had just spoken with the French president Sarkozy, who told him to vote for Qatar. Six months later Qatar bought fighter jets from France for 14.6 billion dollars.”
So, now Qatar is hosting, and, while everyone objects to the human rights and labor violations, it appears that, as Gandalf said, “things [read: capital and military-industrial] are now in motion that cannot be undone.” Siri, look up the definition of complicity. We don’t have high hopes for resistance, but we live to be surprised.
But fear not: France, the defending champions from Russia 2018, may get their just desert soon enough when they’re eliminated in the group stage. They don’t have to look too far back to the last time this happened: 2010 after making the final in 2006… 2002 after winning the thing in 1998. This well-known “winner’s curse” phenomenon of recent World Cups raises tantalizing psychological hypotheses which we will leave to the reader. But suffice to say that in four of the last five World Cups, the reigning champion has capitulated in the group stages. Besides France in 2002, it happened to Italy in 2010 after winning in 2006, to Spain in 2014 after winning in 2010, and to Germany in 2018 after winning in 2014. Now it’s France’s turn again. Heavy is the head that wears the crown.
But maybe France can break out of it. This World Cup does, for some reason, feel a little weaker than most others in recent memory. In part, it’s missing huge names like Mohammed Salah, Erling Haaland, and Marco Verratti. In part, no one has replaced Messi and Ronaldo as world beaters (or Iniesta or Henry or Ronaldinho or Robben or Schweinsteiger). In part, it’s giving NBA Bubble Playoffs, perhaps because it’s being played in Qatar at the wrong time of the year in the middle of the European club season. And, in part, it features declining (or rebuilding) European powers like Spain, Germany, and Netherlands. And no Italy. England, you say? Lol.
Here’s our brief group-by-group color commentary and prognostication. Reminder for the clueless: two teams go through per group after playing every team in the group (3 games) and tallying up points (3 points for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for loss). Then the knockout rounds are set as per below.
Group-by-group commentary and predictions
Group A
Hopefully the witch doctor they’ve literally hired to get Mane (Senegal) healthy is a real witch doctor and gets the job done. It would be a huge bummer for the new Bayern and former Liverpool star to miss out in Qatar. He’s in the squad for now, and “his recovery will condition his availability.”
Ecuador, from what we know, are a middling power from South America, and Qatar shouldn’t stand a chance. Netherlands are fine-to-formidable (with a spine of van Dijk, de Jong, Depay), and they should go through, but Senegal, who are strong even without Mane, could come out on top of the group. One of them might play the USMNT in the next round.
Group B
Gareth Bale has apparently been prohibited from playing golf in Qatar, but that shouldn’t be a problem re his priorities (see below). The Welsh winger recently scored the winner in the MLS Cup Final for his new team LAFC and will come in guns blazing for what is his first and likely last World Cup.
In spite of this, England and the USMNT are likely to go through from this super British group, with Iran not getting many points. England shouldn’t go much further after the group stages, but they’re simply too strong, on paper, to crumble in the group (Kane, Bellingham, Saka, Rice stand out). The US, meanwhile, have a pleasant habit of slightly over-performing in the World Cup, and with this roster of young players (Gio Reyna, Pulisic, Musah stand out), they could put on some surprise performances. They could also flop and Wales go through instead. It is, afterall, Wales’ first World Cup appearance since Sweden 1958, and they will be super-motivated.
Group C
Lewandowski (Poland) and Lionel Messi (Argentina) stand out here as being two of the best players in the world for the last decade — the latter being the GOAT. Argentina are the strongest team in this group, and many peoples’ favorites for the whole thing. The Scaloneta is positively cruising along after last year’s Copa America win, and the chemistry in the side and around Messi (De Paul, Di Maria, Lautaro, etc) is the best it’s been in our lifetime.
Lewa, meanwhile, might be able to provide enough to get the Poles past the superior footballing culture and pedigree of Mexico. We’ll be rooting for Mexico, though, and it’ll be a tight race for second place, likely not involving the Saudis.
Group D
An easy first place in this group would seem to be France (notwithstanding the aforementioned winner’s curse). Despite a midfield lacking depth (Pogba, Kante out), France has an extremely talented defense (Kounde, Upamecano, Varane, Saliba, etc) and offense (Mbappe, Benzema, Griezzman, Dembele, etc). Immaturity and petulance could hamstring them, though — see 2010 World Cup.
Second place is likely Denmark, (led by recovered captain Christian Eriksen who’s in excellent form for Man Utd this season) — if they don’t get banned, that is, for wearing “Human Rights for All” training tops. The Aussies will be in with a shout. Honestly don’t know much about Tunisia.
Group E
A strong group with Spain and Germany, perennial powerhouses who are in periods of regrowth and decline, respectively, IMO. Still, the two should certainly be making it out handily, with Japan and Costa Rica presenting few obstacles.
Spain could go far in this World Cup with their young squad led by Luis Enrique. The youth of Dani Olmo, Gavi, Ansu Fati, a solid defense, and the immense midfield of Busquets and Pedri. Says Xavi of Pedri: “If we’re talking pure talent, he’s the best in the world.” We would have to agree.
Germany are great on paper but haven’t exactly been firing. Neuer, Musiala, Muller, and Kimmich are among the best players in the world, though, and they should beat Spain and go far.
Group F
Alphonso Davies of Canada, left back for Bayern Munich, is one of the world’s best players but probably won’t be able to get his team past Belgium, Croatia, and Morroco. People will remember Croatia’s final run four years ago in Russia, but that was deceiving and it won’t be easy for them to finish second. Our pick for second is Morocco with their impressive array of stars: Ziyech (Chelsea), Hakimi (PSG), Mazrouai (Bayern). Belgium should be clear first place, led by Kevin De Bruyne, the free-wheeling attacking midfielder with crosses, passes, and canons for days. He has a solid supporting staff, but, like the Netherlands, there does not appear to be anything crazy going on with this team. (Elder Hazard last seen at Stamford Bridge circa 2018?)
Group G
Brazil, footballing royalty led by a resurgent Neymar and his cadre of world-class ballers (Casemiro, Fabinho, Vinicius, Alisson, Thiago Silva, etc), is our favorite to win the whole thing. The rest of this group is deceptively strong, with Serbia, Cameroon, and Switzerland all evenly matched. Our pick, for climate and vibes, is Cameroon. You don’t have to take our word for it. Samuel Eto’o, Cameroon and Barcelona legend recently called that “Cameroon will win the World Cup final against Morocco”(!)
Group H
This is probably the strongest group. Ronaldo and co (Bernardo Silva, Joao Felix, Bruno Fernandes, Nuno Mendes, Rafael Leao stand out) will be aiming to get through — and should with their talent. But besides Portugal, it’s a tossup. Son Heung-min of Korea and Tottenham Hotspur has been one of the best and most underrated players in the world for the past few years, and his Korea is strong. Ghana is always strong and will be hoping to repeat their 2010 run to the quarterfinals (see Luis Suarez handball; this’ll be a fun rematch). And Uruguay has some extremely talented youngsters (Fede “canon” Valverde of Real Madrid and Darwin Nunez of Liverpool), all under the guidance of one of the best strikers of all time in Luis Suarez. Our second pick is Uruguay.
Knockout stages
On the left side of the bracket, Brazil will probably have to beat Spain or Germany in the quarterfinals before the mouthwatering prospect of a showdown with Argentina in the semis. On the right, Belgium or Portugal could play England or France in the semis. Whoever comes out of this melee will likely fall at the hands of the winner of Argentina-Brazil — and football will truly “come home,” to South America.
In concludium
Some of the world’s premier talent will be on display for the next month, pure entertainment. The beautiful game, the world’s game. But how pure? Can we, afterall, separate the art from the artist, the game from its administration? Hold on tight, it will be a spectacle in more ways than one.
Joga bonito,
-DvD
Hi! Just heard this story on NPR, right after reading your dispatch. You might like it! I'm not a soccer aficionado, as you well know, but I enjoyed this story. It's the first in a series.
https://www.npr.org/2022/11/11/1136087664/the-last-cup-lionel-messis-dream
Lionel Messi is considered one of the greatest soccer players of all time. An Argentine by birth, he rose to stardom playing in Europe. Messi has won almost every accolade possible for a professional soccer player–save one–the World Cup. He's never been able to lead his Argentine national team to victory and he says this year's competition will be his final attempt.
In The Last Cup, a new bilingual podcast series from NPR and Futuro Studios, NPR's Jasmine Garsd looks at how Messi has wrestled with the disappointment of the home crowd after each devastating World Cup loss. Over time, his connection to his own country has been questioned after spending time abroad. Garsd, an immigrant from Argentina herself asks: What can Messi's story tell us about the cost of leaving home, and the struggle to return?
Listen to The Last Cup in Spanish and English on NPR One, Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
You forget to mention Foden as a key player for England!